UC Press Blog

By Lisa Jacobson, author of Intoxicating Pleasures: The Reinvention of Wine, Beer, and Whiskey after Prohibition

Dry January, the month when many Americans resolve to drink less (or not at all) after an indulgent holiday season, has come and gone. So, too, has the storm of publicity that announced its arrival. But this year’s event garnered more headlines and commentary than usual. Perhaps that’s because Dry January’s biggest champions could point to new scientific studies debunking the widely held view that moderate drinking is harmless, if not beneficial. The stark warning that no amount of alcohol was safe became even harder to ignore when Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued a rare public health advisory on January 3, warning that alcohol was a leading preventable cause of cancer and should be labeled as such. 

Other economic and demographic indicators point to tougher times ahead for the alcoholic beverage industry. Sales of mocktails have risen while sales alcoholic beverages have fallen across all categories. According to one study, 69 percent of Gen Z now prefer cannabis to alcohol. If trend-spotting journalists are correct, Gen Z and the “sober curious” are now the driving forces of a neotemperance movement dedicated to wellness and “self-optimization.” 

Historians are not in the business of predicting the future, but we can put trends in a broader context. As someone who has studied alcohol’s redemption and reinvention after Prohibition, I am struck by the possibility that we may be in the midst of a major cultural shift: the reputational demotion of moderate drinking. For the first time since World War II, alcohol’s place as an emblem of “the good life” may be in jeopardy. 

Moderate drinking used to excite the enmity of only the most hard-core prohibitionists. As they saw it, even the seemingly innocuous habit of drinking wine with dinner invariably led drinkers down the slippery slope to ill health, addiction, and ruin. When voters repealed Prohibition in 1933, the newly resurrected alcoholic beverage industry embraced moderation as their ace in the hole. They invested millions in advertising and public relations campaigns that enshrined moderate drinking as an essential component of the good life. A new image of the modern drinker took hold, as advertisers, trade associations, and etiquette manuals gently goaded consumers to moderate their Prohibition-era excesses. Self-styled drinking reformers promoted new visions of modern gender roles and middle-class decorum. The modern woman recognized alcohol as an essential element of domestic hospitality and marital harmony, while the responsible male drinker used alcohol to cement business deals and friendships without overindulging or spending beyond his means. 

Prohibitionists quickly recognized the redemptive power of the industry’s revamped moderation strategy. In the late 1930s, one dismayed dry activist, sensing that prohibitionists had been outmaneuvered, denounced the industry’s campaign to “make all of us feel upright, clean-living and manly about our indulgences.” 

The moderation strategy worked partly because the industry left the definition of moderation vague. Whiskey distillers advised avoiding that “one drink too many” that could induce hangovers and mar one’s reputation. Brewers promoted drinking beer in homey suburban settings where the civilizing presence of women would restrain excessive drinking, while vintners recommended enjoying wine over a leisurely meal with other “busy, active people.” Scientists and physicians were also some of moderation’s most persuasive defenders, but they, too, offered a fluid definition of responsible drinking. At Congressional hearings held just before Prohibition’s repeal, they sanctioned the enjoyment of light beers and wines with dinner as a salutary means to relieve the businessman’s stress and buoy his spirits. These were the visions of respectability that transformed moderate drinking into an emblem of middle-class identity.

It’s no wonder the new health warnings have incensed those accustomed to viewing moderate drinking as a well-earned, salubrious pleasure. The New York Times Magazine provoked an avalanche of comments responding to the June 2024 article “Is That Drink Worth It to You?”—a piece claiming that alcohol of any kind and in any amount was unsafe. Collectively, the commenters seemed to be navigating their way through the five stages of grief. Some angrily denounced the stealth prohibitionist agenda lurking behind the revised statistics and sensationalized headlines. Moderate drinking, even according to the Times article, would shorten longevity by a matter of weeks, not years, so why worry? Others quickly entered the stage of bargaining, conceding that while moderate drinking may not be beneficial, the pleasures of convivial sociability and wine-enhanced meals outweighed alcohol’s risks. Readers who had seen the light accused the doubters of living in denial about their risky behavior. 

It’s not clear how moderate drinkers will respond to the more restrictive guidelines on alcohol consumption that may come later this year. Will they make dryish January a year-round practice or will consumers make a few minor adjustments after conducting their own risk assessment? My bet’s on the latter—at least in the short run. Rates of cigarette smoking barely budged following the 1964 Surgeon General report linking smoking to lung cancer and heart disease. It took a sustained anti-smoking media campaign and another Surgeon General report in 1982—this one warning about the dangers of secondhand smoke—before smokers began abandoning cigarettes in mass. 

Many Americans are also inclined to dismiss public health advice they perceive as an infringement on personal liberty (as many did with the COVID-19 mask mandates). Ironically, one of Prohibition’s chief legacies—the lingering public suspicion of an overzealous nanny state—may offer alcohol its best protection. 

It is unclear what historical lessons the alcoholic beverage industry will heed. Will they dispute troubling health data, as the tobacco industry did? Will they fund new pro-alcohol and anti-cannabis studies to win back Gen Z consumers? Or will they become more circumspect about touting alcohol’s health benefits and revise the old moderation playbook? Getting the right answer may well determine whether the iconic status of the moderate, middle-class drinker rebounds or falters.