6 Results
Why CNN is changing up its polling for 2024
Oct 11 2024
Polls of the 2020 presidential election were at their collective worst in 40 years. No misfire that year was more striking than CNN’s. Its final poll before the election estimated that Joe Biden held a landslide-size lead of 12 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump
Some midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging
Jan 24 2023
By Joseph Campbell, author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential ElectionsThis post was originally published on The Conversation and is reprinted here with permission.Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-elec
Election polls in 2020 produced ‘error of unusual magnitude,’ expert panel finds, without pinpointing cause
Jul 28 2021
By W. Joseph Campbell, author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential ElectionsThis post was originally published on The Conversation on July 20, 2021More than eight months after the acute polling embarrassment in the 2020 U.S. elections – that produced the sharpest dis
An embarrassing failure for election pollsters
Nov 04 2020
By W. Joseph Campbell, author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential ElectionsThis post was originally published on The Conversation, and is reposted here with permission.Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this
Lost in a Gallup: Revisiting the final hours of the 2016 campaign
Oct 19 2020
This excerpt from Lost in Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections revisits the many confident expressions about Hillary Rodham Clinton’s candidacy in the final days and hours before the 2016 general election. A close outcome seemed possible, but her defeat was implausible. Clinton won
When noted journalists bashed political polls as nothing more than ‘a fragmentary snapshot’ of a moment in time
Oct 07 2020
by W. Joseph Campbell, author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential ElectionsThis post was originally featured in The Conversation, and has been reblogged with permission.Poll-bashing – the aggressive, even extreme lambasting of pollsters and their work – used to be b