Two economists take readers on a tour of the economics of legal and illegal weed, showing where cannabis regulation has gone wrong and how it could do better.

Cannabis "legalization" hasn't lived up to the hype. Across North America, investors are reeling, tax collections are below projections, and people are pointing fingers. On the business side, companies have shut down, farms have failed, workers have lost their jobs, and consumers face high prices. Why has legal weed failed to deliver on many of its promises? Can Legal Weed Win? takes on the euphoric claims with straight dope and a full dose of economic reality.

This book delivers the unadulterated facts about the new legal segment of one of the world's oldest industries. In witty, accessible prose, economists Robin Goldstein and Daniel Sumner take readers on a whirlwind tour of the economic past, present, and future of legal and illegal weed. Drawing upon reams of data and their own experience working with California cannabis regulators since 2016, Goldstein and Sumner explain why many cannabis businesses and some aspects of legalization fail to measure up, while others occasionally get it right. Their stories stretch from before America's first medical weed dispensaries opened in 1996 through the short-term boom in legal consumption that happened during COVID-19 lockdowns. Can Legal Weed Win? is packed with unexpected insights about how cannabis markets can thrive, how regulators get the laws right or wrong, and what might happen to legal and illegal markets going forward.

About the Author

Robin Goldstein is an economist and author of The Wine Trials, the controversial exposé of wine snobbery that became the world's best-selling guide to cheap wine. He is Director of the Cannabis Economics Group in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis. He has an AB from Harvard University, a JD from Yale Law School, and a PhD in economics from the University of Bordeaux.

Daniel Sumner is Frank H. Buck, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis. He grew up on a California fruit farm, served on the president's Council of Economic Advisers, and was Assistant Secretary of Economics at the US Department of Agriculture before joining the UC Davis faculty. He has a BS from Cal Poly and a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

Contents

Preface: Fear and Stoning in Las Vegas
Acknowledgments

1 We Call It Weed
2 Legal versus Illegal: A Market Battle
3 Prices Get High
4 We Ask Our Data: Where’s the Cheapest Legal Weed?
5 California Dreamin’
6 Sabrina’s Story
7 Legal Weed in 2050
8 How to Survive Legalization
Conclusion: Five Pipe Dreams about Legal Weed

Bibliography
Index

Reviews

"In this lucid and pragmatic analysis, U.C. Davis economists Goldstein and Summer extinguish overheated predictions about the potential size and profits of the legal marijuana market. . . . Jargon-free and data-rich, this is a clear-eyed analysis of a hazy market."
— Publishers Weekly

“Economists Goldstein and Sumner argue that government bureaucracy has made legal pot expensive to grow and sell, incentivizing illegal operations instead. Legal weed, their punny, breezy book shows, can only win once 'legal' isn’t an anticompetitive word.”
— Bloomberg Businessweek

"An excellent primer on the state of the cannabis industry in America today."
— Jacobin

"Explains how burdensome licensing requirements, regulations, and taxes have frustrated plans to displace the black market."
— Reason

"Written in a fun, witty tone that makes reading about finances more engaging than ever."
— CBD Oracle

"The authors provide a compelling explanation for the disappointing economics of weed, and their wry humor makes the book entertaining as well as instructive. Highly recommended."
— CHOICE

"An irreverent, well-written, no-nonsense, fact-packed guide to some of the unexpected consequences of weed legalization. Both surprising and enlightening!"—Laurie Santos, Professor of Psychology, Yale University, and host of The Happiness Lab podcast

"It's high time economists took a serious look at weed. This insightful and entertaining joint effort sheds light on an important topic."—Jayson Lusk, Distinguished Professor and Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, and author of The Food Police and Unnaturally Delicious

"Robin Goldstein and Daniel Sumner provide a comprehensive guide to the key economic and regulatory factors that are driving the markets for weed, while at the same time offering plenty of fun anecdotes for an enjoyable read. A must-have reference for anyone considering participating in this industry as an investor, producer, retailer, policy maker, or consumer."—Bradley Rickard, Professor of Food and Agricultural Economics, Cornell University

"Not just your ordinary puff piece, Can Legal Weed Win? delivers a refreshing explanation of how the legalization of cannabis ended up in smoke and how it can get straight again. Goldstein and Sumner take a refreshingly objective perspective, which few weed books do, and explain with simple, understandable economic intuition how we have arrived at a dual-market (legal and illegal) system."—Michael McCullough, Professor of Agribusiness, California Polytechnic State University, and CEO of the Beeronomics Society

About the Book

About the Author

Table of Contents

Reviews